Following the Central Bank conferences is essential for my decision-making and that of every responsible trader.
Tony Fluxá:
Independent trader since 2014. Technical Analyst, Expert robot programmer.
"It is not the strongest of the species that survives,
nor is it the most intelligent.
It is the one that is the most adaptable to change."
Who is this guy?
Talented traders are highly in demand and valued, however my advantages when trading on my own vs. corporate traders are very,
very broad:
1: I may maintain a Drawdown at my own discretion and risk.
2: I can stay out of trading for as long as I consider necessary and remain in passive mode and focus on finding new opportunities instead of trying to break fires in times of threatening losses
in the trading account.
3.: I can use the strategy that I want and the regulation allows me.
4: The results are 100% wrapped in my assets (except taxes and interest - 50% approx.)
My disadvantages:
1: I don't have a human corporate backer.
2: I do not have access to the same top-level and fast information sources.
3: I do not operate with large third-party capital. (operating with your own capital can generate extraordinary stress and have a negative impact on decisions)
4.: I don't have access to expensive high-end FinTech tools
5.: I do not have access to the same high-quality training.
Conclusions:
Even so, I have built my trading capacity on my own over the years, I have an acceptable small capital, experience in crisis management: I have survived the 2020 pandemic, I have created my means
and methods of fundamental and technical analysis and I have set up my FinTech tools.
I am a small, independent, active and above all: free trader.
Another challenge overcome in a Prop Firm test...results below
Rough Estimate of Financial Collapse
Debt to GDP: If we assume that the US economy continues to grow, a debt level exceeding 175% of GDP could be a tipping point. With GDP projected to be around $46 trillion by 2034, this would
imply a total debt of around $80.5 trillion.
Interest Costs: Currently, the US is estimated to pay approximately $1.14 trillion in interest this year, representing 76% of all income taxes collected.
If interest costs continue to rise due to higher rates, this could accelerate the crisis.
Catastrophic Scenario: An abrupt increase in interest rates or severe economic stagnation could lead to a situation where interest payments exceed tax revenues. This could happen if debt reaches
levels higher than those mentioned above, possibly around $75-80 trillion, which would correspond to a debt-to-GDP ratio of more than 175-200%.
|--------------------------------------------------|
| Risk
Barometer |
|--------------------------------------------------|
| Current Level (36T) | ██████████ |
| Alert Threshold (54T) | ████████████████ |
| Critical Inflection Point (75-80T)| ████████████████████|
| Financial Collapse (>80T) | ████████████████████████|
|--------------------------------------------------|
Interpretation of the Barometer
- Each section of the barometer represents a critical level of debt.
- As the debt approaches the upper levels, the risk of financial collapse increases.
- This chart can be used to monitor the evolution of indebtedness and alert about the need for fiscal reforms or interventions before reaching dangerous levels.
Conclusion
Creating this barometer provides a useful visual tool for understanding the risks associated with the growing level of indebtedness in the U.S. and helps identify critical moments where preventive actions may be required to avoid a financial collapse.
Source: Treasury Direct, Debt to the Penny
Below are the latest 25 Insider transaction forms filed with the SEC (Securities & Exchange Commission, www.sec.gov). (External links).
And Here below I attach a calendar.
Risk management:
This trading is not for the general public: its understanding when monitoring the tracking can be confusing and even disturbing for the new investor.
I recommend starting a few weeks in a demo account, however, for expert traders and people who know me and consider themselves disciplined, they can already start copying.
This website: opentrading.tech is owned by the author and is completely free and independent from any person, brand or corporation of any kind.
All external information included in this website has been included respecting the protection of copyright and intellectual rights and with the authorization of the respective publishers.
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.